Scotland going it alone? Some thoughts on the Independence Referendum in autumn 2014

As many of you will know, Scotland has longed for independence ever since the not very voluntary union with England in 1707. As a Swiss I have a fairly good idea of the resentments this "union" caused, and of how important historic events are to traditionalists.

A "Saltire" sky above Oban, November 2011. Photo © MPJ

But I have my doubts and questions about full Scottish independence, on which I will – fingers crossed my application for UK citizenship goes through next year – be able to vote in 2014.

Some of my questions are about financial impacts. I would like to see hard-headed, independent figures on just how much money flows south from "Holyrood/Edinburgh" and how much comes north from "Westminster/London". This is a tall order given the interconnectedness of the only partially independent economies in the UK.
And of course no-one has a crystal ball to see into the future. Still, despite recent massive upheavals, past figures may tell an interesting story. The Nationalists, I'm afraid, are hugely biased and do not show the full picture. So this here future voter wants some pragmatic facts and figures.
She has found more questions in this highly readable article:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/16630456

The information and thoughts given by Douglas Fraser, the BBC's Business and Economy editor for Scotland, pulls up lots of caveats. For example:

• "... given the importance of oil and gas revenues to achieving […] greater prosperity in Scotland, how does that square with making the country greener - particularly when claims are repeatedly made that a country that produces as much oil as Scotland shouldn't be paying such high fuel tax?"

• "Alex Salmond said he wanted a million signatories to the declaration. […]
"The round number […] brought to mind a speech in October 2006, months before becoming first minister, when Mr Salmond envisioned a million small wind turbines powering Scottish homes, on house roofs and in its gardens.
"That meant roughly two turbines for every five homes, including all those who live in flats. Achieving that by 2016 was a tall order then. It looks taller now. […]"

Mr Fraser is putting it kindly. I'd have said unachievable, given the sometimes irrational resistance to wind turbines up and down the country. Currently, according to this source, there are 467 wind turbines in Scotland, with a further 1,255 in planning – I rest my case.

More worrying information regarding the future of countries' economies:
• "[…] the cost of insuring UK bonds against non-payment has risen steeply recently, but money still floods into London for safety, and demand for bonds pushes prices up, meaning yields automatically fall.
"It's not clear why money would flood into the market to buy Scottish government bonds as a safe haven, least of all when they start, inevitably, with no track record. Bond traders will make a judgement on the credit rating of a newly-independent Scotland.
"[…] Until now, Holyrood's revenue has had very little flexibility, and as it's lacked any borrowing powers, the Scottish government simply has to balance its books.
"So [presenting a balanced Scottish budget] is not an achievement so much as a requirement. And it's been accompanied by many calls from Scottish ministers that they would like very much to borrow more to stimulate more growth into the economy.
"Whether or not they're right to call for that, it would mean unbalanced budgets and, at least initially, bigger deficits.
"Any bond trader wanting to price risk on Scottish debt might listen with interest to the rhetoric from the Fountainbridge cinema on Friday, as several prominent voices pointed to a radical repudiation of market orthodoxy."

I quake in my shoes at Scottish ministers calling for more borrowing – see where that got the Royal Bank of Scotland, to name just one huge financial institution that had to be bailed out by the state!



If the launch of the Yes {to Independence} Campaign is anything to go by, Scottish Independence won't happen. Here's an overview of press responses to the "Declaration of Fountainbridge" presented on 11 May 2012.
Goodness, how could I have missed that? Because it failed to make waves – is why.


In my humble opinion, people in Scotland today have massive worries about their economic futures. I now know personally more than half a dozen adults who have moved or are having to move back in with their parents because they've lost their jobs and can no longer afford to live their own independent lives. A friend has told me of a couple having stopped living together and each of the partners going back to live with their sundry parents. I've spoken to parents whose children have moved back in with them; the parental response is not one of unmitigated joy. Unsurprising, really: how would you feel if, at the tender age of, say, 65 or 70, you suddenly found yourself cooking again for a whole family, doing the shopping for them, and the laundry, and the cleaning? All of this to enable the "children" to focus on finding a new source of income, for example. I certainly would never want to have to move back in with my parents, no matter how much I love them, and there's no question that I do.

So, anything that's going to bring yet another big wobble to the already fragile economy is not going to be very welcome here.


Bring on the hard-headed, hard-nosed, pragmatic information, please! Treat your voters with respect and trust us to make the right decisions. We can only do that, however, if we're given serious and reliable information, no matter how complex it may be.

Switzerland: Guggershorn, Gantrisch in December '07

Hello again!
This is a historic day in Swiss politics: the would-be-great Christoph Blocher has been ousted from the Swiss government (cabinet) and a very capable woman, Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf voted in (she wants to sleep on it and tell us tomorrow morning whether she will agree to take his place). Widmer-Schlumpf is a member of the Grisons cantonal executive and has an excellent track record.
Blocher, who was also hoping to be elected Vice-President of the Swiss Confederation, and his cronies have today been punished for an extremely right-wing political style that disregards Swiss traditions of give-and-take, a policy that disrespects minorities, and excludes those who do not toe the party line and keeps dissing the disenfranchised.
Sometimes, Swiss politics are quite exciting!

But today I want to share with you ...
... a few visual memories of a windswept and mostly chilly walk ten days ago from Guggisberg to Guggershorn and over to Schwendelberg and back down again – we enjoyed some stunning views and even a moment of sun. Some tree wrecks dating back from hurricane Lothar (27 December 1999) provided a sobering counterpoint (next post).
This is how walking trails are signposted in Switzerland. Yellow signs giving the destination and a fairly good estimate of the walking time required. Pictograms indicate whether a destination is on a postbus or train line, etc.
The Guggershorn *) is a curious outcropping of "Nagelfluh", a coarse sedimentary conglomerate that looks a little like concrete. The Swiss Mittelland and pre-Alps are full of such outcroppings and hills. Some of them carry fascinating ammonites. Not far from Bern there's an oyster bank -- fossilized oysters, of course.
The Guggershorn is a steep ascent but really easy on a dry day. Lots of steps...
The famous Guggershorn or Guggershoernli is the "peak" on the right. In the middle of the photo above is the church of Guggisberg. That's where the famous Vreneli of the ancient Swiss folk song came from.In this view from Guggershorn, high above the village of Guggisberg in the foreground (click on the photo for an enlarged view), you can just see Lake Neuchâtel -- a light-blue band beyond the darker blue hills and below the grey-blue band of the Jura mountain range.
The hill or mountain in the middle right is the Gross Schwyberg. Some people are planning to place a few wind turbines on top -- essentially a very good idea as it is fairly exposed and not a hugely beautiful bit of pre-Alp as such. But opposition is fierce. A few weeks ago, the marking posts indicating where the pylons would be placed were pulled down by a party of anonymous wreckers.
Another view of the same mountain, the Schwiberg (probably translates as Pig Mountain, above).
View from Guggershorn: Kaiseregg above Schwarzsee (not visible in this photo) and some other peaks in the Fribourg chain of the Alps. Winter has come early to these parts.

*) Guggershorn, 1283 masl

Finally, en route back to Guggisberg, we came past this picturesque house:
An amazing mix of wall coverings: vertical weatherboard that reminds me of New England houses; lichen-covered shingle slowly slipping earthward; the sun-facing front is rendering, probably on brick or stone. The top triangle above the weather brow is metal sheeting. The place looks inhabited; note the rope ladder leading up to the tree (right) -- a holiday home, most likely. Picturesque, but in need of some major tender loving care.

After the short, steep walk in the Guggershorn area, we drove back to Bern the long way round, by way of the Gurnigel pass. Here are some visual memories of what became a fairly windy, grey late afternoon:
We even ended up having to negotiate a partially snow-covered road. In the high winter season this will be part of a fantastic cross-country skiing trail. I am hoping to return later and do some proper cross-country skiing here. This photo shows the signpost to a beautiful mountain cabin that serves as a school holiday camp. The sign reads "Ferienlager Burst". It's a well-provisioned, well-proportioned house:
I'd think that not much light gets in through the two tiny windows which are, moreover, fronted by a substantial store of firewood.
Detail of the perfectly constructed shingle roof. It's a dying trade but evidently some craftspeople are still around to build such beauties. From the colour of the wood and the condition of the roof, I'd say it's no older than four or fifteen years.
Finally, some views to be enjoyed from Bursthütte:
Patches of snow on the steep alpine meadow, the four-o'clock sun trying to burn through the dense fog. A less well-known view of the Bernese Alps (above) and of one of my favourites, the Gantrisch (below, centre), the Nuenenenfluh (below, left), and Buerglen (below, right):Below, the Buerglen again (centre), and the Ochsen (right); with the "Bire", an almost perfectly conical hill, in front, just above the dark patches of woodland. I'm hoping to post a clearer image of this some other time -- these photos really have far too little contrast. But they remind me of long-ago skiing hikes and summer climbs.Come back soon!