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| A "Saltire" sky above Oban, November 2011. Photo © MPJ |
Some of my questions are about financial impacts. I would like to see hard-headed, independent figures on just how much money flows south from "Holyrood/Edinburgh" and how much comes north from "Westminster/London". This is a tall order given the interconnectedness of the only partially independent economies in the UK.
And of course no-one has a crystal ball to see into the future. Still, despite recent massive upheavals, past figures may tell an interesting story. The Nationalists, I'm afraid, are hugely biased and do not show the full picture. So this here future voter wants some pragmatic facts and figures.
She has found more questions in this highly readable article:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/16630456
The information and thoughts given by Douglas Fraser, the BBC's Business and Economy editor for Scotland, pulls up lots of caveats. For example:
• "... given the importance of oil and gas revenues to achieving […] greater prosperity in Scotland, how does that square with making the country greener - particularly when claims are repeatedly made that a country that produces as much oil as Scotland shouldn't be paying such high fuel tax?"
• "Alex Salmond said he wanted a million signatories to the declaration. […]
"The round number […] brought to mind a speech in October 2006, months before becoming first minister, when Mr Salmond envisioned a million small wind turbines powering Scottish homes, on house roofs and in its gardens.
"That meant roughly two turbines for every five homes, including all those who live in flats. Achieving that by 2016 was a tall order then. It looks taller now. […]"
Mr Fraser is putting it kindly. I'd have said unachievable, given the sometimes irrational resistance to wind turbines up and down the country. Currently, according to this source, there are 467 wind turbines in Scotland, with a further 1,255 in planning – I rest my case.
More worrying information regarding the future of countries' economies:
• "[…] the cost of insuring UK bonds against non-payment has risen steeply recently, but money still floods into London for safety, and demand for bonds pushes prices up, meaning yields automatically fall.
"It's not clear why money would flood into the market to buy Scottish government bonds as a safe haven, least of all when they start, inevitably, with no track record. Bond traders will make a judgement on the credit rating of a newly-independent Scotland.
"[…] Until now, Holyrood's revenue has had very little flexibility, and as it's lacked any borrowing powers, the Scottish government simply has to balance its books.
"So [presenting a balanced Scottish budget] is not an achievement so much as a requirement. And it's been accompanied by many calls from Scottish ministers that they would like very much to borrow more to stimulate more growth into the economy.
"Whether or not they're right to call for that, it would mean unbalanced budgets and, at least initially, bigger deficits.
"Any bond trader wanting to price risk on Scottish debt might listen with interest to the rhetoric from the Fountainbridge cinema on Friday, as several prominent voices pointed to a radical repudiation of market orthodoxy."
I quake in my shoes at Scottish ministers calling for more borrowing – see where that got the Royal Bank of Scotland, to name just one huge financial institution that had to be bailed out by the state!
If the launch of the Yes {to Independence} Campaign is anything to go by, Scottish Independence won't happen. Here's an overview of press responses to the "Declaration of Fountainbridge" presented on 11 May 2012.
Goodness, how could I have missed that? Because it failed to make waves – is why.
In my humble opinion, people in Scotland today have massive worries about their economic futures. I now know personally more than half a dozen adults who have moved or are having to move back in with their parents because they've lost their jobs and can no longer afford to live their own independent lives. A friend has told me of a couple having stopped living together and each of the partners going back to live with their sundry parents. I've spoken to parents whose children have moved back in with them; the parental response is not one of unmitigated joy. Unsurprising, really: how would you feel if, at the tender age of, say, 65 or 70, you suddenly found yourself cooking again for a whole family, doing the shopping for them, and the laundry, and the cleaning? All of this to enable the "children" to focus on finding a new source of income, for example. I certainly would never want to have to move back in with my parents, no matter how much I love them, and there's no question that I do.
So, anything that's going to bring yet another big wobble to the already fragile economy is not going to be very welcome here.
Bring on the hard-headed, hard-nosed, pragmatic information, please! Treat your voters with respect and trust us to make the right decisions. We can only do that, however, if we're given serious and reliable information, no matter how complex it may be.
2 comments:
Dear Margaret - We both arrived in Scotland at approximately the same time and I try to occasionally look at your blog and see how you are developing your life here in Scotland.
I read your piece about independence for Scotland and just wanted to declare that I disagree with your premise that independence would be bad for Scotland. Before that I would also say that BBC Scotland does have a somewhat tainted reputation for being biased and staffed by predominantly Labour Part supporters.
I am not suggesting that becoming independent will be easy but there can be no doubt that smaller countries are more socially cohesive and thus offer the possibility of a higher quality of life. The independence question has almost exclusively concentrated on matters financial. As you alluded to, financial matters are difficult to differentiate and even the experts can’t come to an accepted opinion. What must be clear to most people is that Britain is in a state of severe decline with most indices, except military spending, showing that we are falling behind most of our comparable neighbours. You lived in Switzerland and I lived in southern Germany, as such we can both make comparisons of quality of life between these countries and Scotland. I think that those comparisons are not always favourable for Scotland. For me independence is not just about standard of living but also about social inclusion, identity and quality of life. It is my conclusion that the administrators in London have no real appreciation or understanding for the people, for example, who live in Oban. That is my reason for believing that Scotland would be a better place to live in as an independent country.
I hope you are not too annoyed at my comments above and thank you for your blog, even if it is not meant for a stranger like me.
Regards
Ron Rothammer
Hi Ron
Thank you for your comment. I'm delighted to have you as my reader, and grateful for any input. I will readily agree with you that Whitehall has little understanding of the intricacies of Scotland, but neither does Holyrood have any appreciation of the intricacies of life on the West Coast, for example. And what about EU membership?
I'm a bit squeezed for time just now to explore all this any further but I have no doubt that this complex issue will never be resolved to everyone's satisfaction.
I AM hoping, however, for fair, exhaustive and respectful debates right across the board. Your contribution is all of the above. Thanks again.
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