As many of you will know, Scotland has longed for independence ever since the not very voluntary union with England in 1707. As a Swiss I have a fairly good idea of the resentments this "union" caused, and of how important historic events are to traditionalists.
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| A "Saltire" sky above Oban, November 2011. Photo © MPJ |
But I have my doubts and questions about full Scottish independence, on which I will – fingers crossed my application for UK citizenship goes through next year – be able to vote in 2014.
Some of my questions are about financial impacts. I would like to see hard-headed, independent figures on just how much money flows south from "Holyrood/Edinburgh" and how much comes north from "Westminster/London". This is a tall order given the interconnectedness of the only partially independent economies in the UK.
And of course no-one has a crystal ball to see into the future. Still, despite recent massive upheavals, past figures may tell an interesting story. The Nationalists, I'm afraid, are hugely biased and do not show the full picture. So this here future voter wants some pragmatic facts and figures.
She has found more questions in this highly readable article:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/16630456
The information and thoughts given by
Douglas Fraser, the BBC's Business and Economy editor for Scotland, pulls up lots of caveats. For example:
• "... given the importance of oil and gas revenues to achieving […]
greater prosperity in Scotland, how does that square with making the
country greener - particularly when claims are repeatedly made that a
country that produces as much oil as Scotland shouldn't be paying such
high fuel tax?"
• "Alex Salmond said he wanted a million signatories to the declaration. […]
"The round number […] brought to mind a speech in October
2006, months before becoming first minister, when Mr Salmond envisioned a
million small wind turbines powering Scottish homes, on house roofs and
in its gardens.
"That meant roughly two turbines for every five homes,
including all those who live in flats. Achieving that by 2016 was a tall
order then. It looks taller now. […]"
Mr Fraser is putting it kindly. I'd have said unachievable, given the sometimes irrational resistance to wind turbines up and down the country. Currently, according to
this source, there are 467 wind turbines in Scotland, with a further 1,255 in planning – I rest my case.
More worrying information regarding the future of countries' economies:
• "[…] the cost of insuring UK bonds against non-payment has risen steeply
recently, but money still floods into London for safety, and demand for
bonds pushes prices up, meaning yields automatically fall.
"It's not clear why money would flood into the market to buy
Scottish government bonds as a safe haven, least of all when they start,
inevitably, with no track record. Bond traders will make a judgement on
the credit rating of a newly-independent Scotland.
"[…] Until now, Holyrood's revenue has had very little flexibility, and as
it's lacked any borrowing powers, the Scottish government simply has to
balance its books.
"So [presenting a balanced Scottish budget] is not an achievement so much as a requirement. And it's
been accompanied by many calls from Scottish ministers that they would
like very much to borrow more to stimulate more growth into the economy.
"Whether or not they're right to call for that, it would mean unbalanced budgets and, at least initially, bigger deficits.
"Any bond trader wanting to price risk on Scottish debt might
listen with interest to the rhetoric from the Fountainbridge cinema on
Friday, as several prominent voices pointed to a radical repudiation of
market orthodoxy."
I quake in my shoes at Scottish ministers calling for more borrowing – see where that got the Royal Bank of Scotland, to name just one huge financial institution that had to be bailed out by the state!
If the launch of the Yes {to Independence} Campaign is anything to go by, Scottish Independence won't happen. Here's an
overview of press responses to the "Declaration of Fountainbridge" presented on 11 May 2012.
Goodness, how could I have missed that? Because it failed to make waves – is why.
In my humble opinion, people in Scotland today have massive worries about their economic futures. I now know personally more than half a dozen adults who have moved or are having to move back in with their parents because they've lost their jobs and can no longer afford to live their own independent lives. A friend has told me of a couple having stopped living together and each of the partners going back to live with their sundry parents. I've spoken to parents whose children have moved back in with them; the parental response is not one of unmitigated joy. Unsurprising, really: how would you feel if, at the tender age of, say, 65 or 70, you suddenly found yourself cooking again for a whole family, doing the shopping for them, and the laundry, and the cleaning? All of this to enable the "children" to focus on finding a new source of income, for example. I certainly would never want to have to move back in with my parents, no matter how much I love them, and there's no question that I do.
So, anything that's going to bring yet another big wobble to the already fragile economy is not going to be very welcome here.
Bring on the hard-headed, hard-nosed, pragmatic information, please! Treat your voters with respect and trust us to make the right decisions. We can only do that, however, if we're given serious and reliable information, no matter how complex it may be.
